KEY POINTS
Next year, about 50 U.S. counties, which are home to more than 8 million residents, are expected to experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit, according to a new model released on Monday by First Street Foundation.
Texas and Florida will bear the brunt of climate change, with the number of extreme heat days nearly doubling in the next thirty years.
The Midwest will also see big change.
Heat records are falling around the world this summer, and scientists expect that climate change will make the problem worse in coming years.
Next year, about 50 U.S. counties, which are home to more than 8 million residents, are expected to experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit according to a new model released on Monday by First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group working to assess climate risk.
That puts those counties at the highest level of the National Weather Service’s heat index, which combines temperatures with humidity readings to estimate how hot it actually feels outside.
Thirty years later, those extreme temps will be experienced in more than one thousand counties, home to about 108 million Americans. First Street uses the 30-year model because that is the length of the most popular mortgage product in the U.S. Heat, flooding and fire risks are increasingly playing into home values, as climate change begins to factor into homebuying decisions.
The area seeing the biggest increase in heat is the South. Texas and Florida will bear the brunt of climate change, with the number of extreme heat days nearly doubling in the next thirty years. This is where much of the nation has migrated in recent years, as the work-from-anywhere culture emerged and people fled for sunnier climates.
The Midwest will also see big change. First Street delineated an “Extreme Heat Belt” going from Northern Texas and Louisiana to Illinois, Indiana, and up into Wisconsin. Unlike Florida, which will see the most extreme heat days, the Midwest has much less available water to mitigate the heat. Higher humidity there also makes the heat less bearable than in drier areas like Phoenix.
“We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire,” said Matthew Eby, CEO of First Street Foundation.
First Street uses high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures, canopy cover, impervious surfaces (tlike streets and parking lots), land cover, and proximity to water to calculate the current heat exposure, and then adjusts for future forecasted emissions scenarios from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This allows for the determination of the number of days any property would be expected to experience dangerous levels of heat.
The group already has flood and fire predictions for every home in America, which can be accessed both on its website and on Realtor.com. The heat factor so far is just on First Street’s website.
Eby says the heat increases will inevitably cause more climate migration, which is already underway in some increasingly flood and fire-prone areas.
“If people move then you have an impact to the tax base and changes to demand for properties and values overall,” he said.
Given that the models are based on the current goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, they could change depending on the outcomes of emissions pledges. First Street’s scenario uses a moderate model, where global emissions would peak by 2040.
“We’re actually low on our forecast because everyone else would have to be cutting like we are, which they’re not,” said Eby. “If anything we’re going to be low. The emissions scenarios will be worse.”
PUBLISHED MON, AUG 15 202211:48 AM EDTUPDATED MON, AUG 15 20222:43 PM EDT
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Click the highlighted link below for the original CNBC.com post.
Now I don’t know about you guys and dolls. But, I simply cannot ignore Climate Change. I have traveled with my husband and dogs from Seattle to Puerto Rico and everywhere in between, just as recently as from October 2021 and still traveling back from Puerto Rico to Gig Harbor, Washington, and everywhere in between. The weather has been insane. Nature has been crazy, and sometimes vicious. And that’s just from October 2021, through mid August 2022! Extreme cold, extreme hot, extreme rain, droughts, freaky storms, crazy oceans and more.
Let’s talk about the ‘and more part’.
I’m allergic to Mosquitoes, Ants, certain Spiders, Holly Bush, Pollen (most), and Gnats/No Seeums and their other names for the same bug (side note: I type the word gnats, and my auto correct replaces it with the word gangster! ROFLMAO 🤣🤣🤣). Between Climate Change and COVID, and the dramatic shift in our society and how we are living, working, and playing, and where, everything else on the planet has had to adapt as well. Many, most animals and species flourished (thou albeit temporarily) due to humans having the global COVID crisis. However, that didn’t stop Climate Change.
Unlike other species, humans are not quite as capable of adapting as other species to these new type of intense weather conditions. Because we are so far behind the curve, we are really struggling to catch up and adapt. I don’t know about you, but I’m not meant for anything above 90°F. I prefer 50°-65°, maybe up to 85° max! I mean you have to factor in humidity, and/or no clouds, smog, pollution, and general haze, then you’re adding 5°-15° to any temperature, this creating ‘feels like real temperature’ 5°-15° hotter. So, my heat sensitive, allergy stricken arse turns 85° to 90°-100°! I get physically ill at that point. Hives, nausea, fainting, stress, it absolutely devastates my skin, and the biggest of all, hyper enhances my GERD. I was born with GERD.
Can you be born with GERD?
Family Studies. If acid reflux is genetic, this means that multiple family members are more likely to have the condition. Research at the University of Amsterdam found a pattern of inheritance of GERD among multi-generational family members.
GERD:
In my case I suffer from stress triggered GERD. Foods and alcohol don’t aggravate it, but stress, oh yeah. Every single time. To the point where they want to perform Fundiplication Surgery on me next time. I’ve already had my esophagus widened twice, because it was closing up due to GERD. EXTREME HEAT STRESSES ME THE FUXX OUT! Now you understand why. Plus, add my Hot Flashes from Menopause. Oy! It is like being on fire.
The most common symptoms are:
- Heartburn.
- Regurgitation (food comes back into your mouth from the esophagus).
- The feeling of food caught in your throat.
- Coughing.
- Chest pain.
- Problem swallowing.
- Vomiting.
- Sore throat and hoarseness.
This does not include the fact that my brain just stops working.
I can stand brief moments of up to 120°. Basically, the time it takes me to run from the inside of an air conditioned place, to my air conditioned automobile. That’s it! Then I bitch about the heat the whole drive practically. I proceed to try and find my happy place while driving, to stop bitching, and count down to how soon I will be at my next destination, which I guarantee has air conditioning. Sound familiar?
During COVID I encountered some really crazy stuff! First of all, on Bainbridge Island, which is across from Seattle (about 1/2 ferry ride) it was 100° at 5pm, for days!!! I was attacked my No Seeums hanging out in my Bamboo while bringing groceries in. I literally went into anaphylaxis (an acute allergic reaction to an antigen (e.g. a bee sting) to which the body has become hypersensitive), I could barely breathe for days!!! I was hospital bound!
We had invasive dangerous species appear. Basically, species appearing in new locations, where they do not belong, killing or destroying the environments natural inhabitants and their resources. We had Murder Hornets. They are just as bad as they sound! In other parts they had Zombie Bees! Even on my own property we had bees EVERYWHERE!!! Bees and Spiders!!! This was just while I was. Each year doubling.
The model highlights the local impacts of climate change by identifying the seven hottest days expected for any property this year, and using that metric to calculate how many of those days would be experienced in 30 years. The most severe shift in local temperatures is found in Miami-Dade County where the 7 hottest days, currently at 103°F, will increase to 34 days at that same temperature by 2053. Across the country, on average, the local hottest 7 days are expected to become the hottest 18 days by 2053.
In the case of extreme heat, the model finds 50 counties, home to 8.1 million residents, that are expected to experience temperatures above 125°F in 2023, the highest level of the National Weather Services’ heat index. By 2053,1,023 counties are expected to exceed this temperature, an area that is home to 107.6 million Americans and covers a quarter of the US land area. This emerging area, concentrated in a geographic region the Foundation calls the “Extreme Heat Belt,” stretches from the Northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana, and even into Wisconsin.
“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” said Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation. “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire.”
The peer-reviewed First Street Foundation Extreme Heat Model will now be incorporated with Risk Factor for every property in the contiguous United States. Visitors to Risk Factor will find their Heat Factor alongside their Flood Factor and Fire Factor and can learn the specific risks to their property, today and up to 30 years into the future.
Research Lab /Published Research /Highlights From “Hazardous Heat”
ARTICLE
Highlights From “Hazardous Heat”
AUGUST 15, 2022
BACKGROUND
New research from First Street Foundation analyzes the the prevalence of increasing extreme temperatures and dangerous heat wave events throughout the contiguous United States, with a key finding being the incidence of heat that exceeds the threshold of the National Weather Service’s (NWS) highest category for heat, called “Extreme Danger” (Heat Index above 125°F) is expected to impact about 8 million people this year, and grows to impact about 107 million people in 2053, an increase of 13 times over 30 years. This increase in “Extreme Danger Days” is concentrated in the middle of the country, in areas where there are no coastal influences to mitigate extreme temperatures.
The First Street Foundation Extreme Heat Model (FSF-EHM) was built using datasets from the US Federal Government, augmented with publicly available and third party data sources, and existing research and expertise on heat modeling. The model estimates localized heat risk at a 30-meter resolution across the United States today and 30 years into the future, creating a high- precision, climate-adjusted heat model that provides insights at a property level. Its analysis combines high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures, canopy cover, impervious surfaces, land cover, and proximity to water to calculate the current heat exposure, and then adjusts for future forecasted emissions scenarios. This allows for the determination of the number of days any property would be expected to experience dangerous levels of heat.
In my travels, we went thru a freak early blizzard and 4″ thick sheets of ice. Beyond intense rain. Crazy winds. Unpredicted storms, water currents, and surges. Insane heat. No wind, when there should have at least been a breeze. Another snow and ice storm. And more. Went through several states complaining of various invasive species attacking crops, wildlife, structures, farm animals, herds, bees, forestry, and humans. I mean we are literally borderline ‘Twilight Zone’ territory. As if all that wasn’t bad enough, we had/have humans going crazy on themselves, and most importantly others!
I mean how can you ignore Climate Change at this point? Look at how frequently, and intensely our own illnesses are becoming. Or crazy fires, flooding, snow storms, tornados, artic shelves breaking, sink holes even happening on the ocean floor, and more happenings. I’m not just talking about here. I’m talking EVERYWHERE around this rock of a planet we call Earth, our home, something is occuring. Out of control, unpredicted, and unpredictable events.
I think at this point it most likely too late to stop it. However, it’s never too late to slow it down, or prepare ourselves, and our planet.
In my family, women have been known to live a very long time. I mean into their 100s! I’m only 52. So let’s just hypothically add 50+ years to my life. This does not include advancement of science and medicine. So who knows how long? Plus, I have nieces and nephews, grand nieces and grand nephews. And so on, and so on. From what science is showing, we could be in for a real shit show. I mean provided we don’t blow up the planet, or nuke everything but the damn roaches! We really need to SERIOUSLY start taking heed!
Trust me, I don’t see myself giving up cow soon, or possibly ever. But, I do believe in utilizing the entire, or most of the animal. I am truly a carnivore, but not a savage. However, I am all about recycling! Minimizing waste. Planting micro gardens. Upcycling. Repurposing. Composting. Preserving. And more. I’m also about preparation, and prevention. Thus, self maintenance, and as much self substaining as possible.
Once we settle back up north, I will be full on composting, gardening, and micro farming. Of course continue my recycling, upcycling, repurposing, preserving, and such. Even in our temp apartment, I grow my own green onions, and peppers. Thinking about starting a small tomato plant, and a basil plant too. Every little bit helps.
If you aren’t a believer in Climate Change, look around, and prove through SCIENCE it’s not happening rapidly, or AT ALL. Just saying.
Leila World Blog 